With the MSM going absolutely nuts over John McCain and his role in the Great Judicial Compromise of 2005, the McCain 2008 buzz is starting to heat up. The MSM is giddy at the thought, while conservatives are poo poohing McCain’s chances and convincing the base to vote for him in the primaries.
Count me as one of those poo poohers. McCain probably won’t get the base to vote for him, especially if the current Arizona governor, Janet Napolitano (D) is re-elected. If Arizona elects a Democratic governor in 2006, McCain 2008 is just a fantasy.
Arizona has a “Resign to Run” law. Any public official seeking election in an office which they do not currently hold, must resign in order to run. In order to run for President in 2008, McCain would have to resign as Senator. The governor then has the authority to appoint the replacement until the next election. And if it’s Governor Napolitano, you can bet she’d appoint a Democrat as McCain’s replacement.
If McCain does this, the conservative base of the Republican party will put a preverbial target on his chest. He can kiss the GOP nomination good-bye. You think conservatives are pissed off now? Just wait. The 2006 election in Arizona and the time period in which McCain needs to declare his candidacy for President are close enough to the 2008 primaries so as not be forgotten by the conservative base of the Republican party (unlike his role in the Great Judicial Compromise of 2005). If, by chance, the Senate remains closely divided, and McCain’s resignation passive aggressively shifts the balance of power to the Democrats, McCain 2008 will sink faster than Dean 2004.
Governor Napolitano is heavily favored to win re-election in 2006. The Arizona Republican party has yet to settle on a favored candidate to face her. Rumours circulating out here vary from Phoenix Suns owner Jerry Colangelo to Marylin Quayle, wife of the former Vice President. So far, Janet has outpolled any Republican candidate. The only candidate to come close to her numbers has been J.D. Hayworth. And he’s already stated he will seek another term in the House in 2006.
If McCain wants the nomination in 2008, watch for him to start pushing state party leaders for a candiddate. Watch for him to spend a significant chunk of his time, and his goodwill with the MSM campaigning for whomever the Arizona Republican party puts up against Napolitano.
There’s a lot of “if’s” going on here, I know. But the bottom line is, the way Napolitano is polling now, to ensure he even has a chance at the GOP nomination in 2008, McCain’s going to have to get a Republican elected as governor in this state. That’s too much to ask for one person, even the “Maverick” John McCain.