Wishful thinking Anecdotal evidence from Tom Blumer that doesn’t mean much, in my humble opinion.
believe the blogosphere has been taking listeners away from talk radio, and that the pace of this shift is accelerating. I believe it’s true on the left and the right, as Air America, having gained no meaningful traction during the election season, has fallen back as well.
The logic behind the decline is simple:* Five-plus years ago, people listened to Rush, Liddy, and the rest to learn things the mainstream media either would not report, or would not emphasize.
* Today, those who follow the blogs have 24-7 access to alternative information. Many of us can predict what Rush, Hannity, Franken and the rest are going to talk about even before the show starts, and we can feel pretty confident that we won’t learn much that is new. So, why listen? Since the left-of-center blogosphere is just as active, one would expect that many of them feel the same way about Franken, Imus (whose program has gone through a steep decline), et al.
Speaking only for myself, I can say that almost all of my current talk radio listening occurs in the car and not in the office. Five-plus years ago, the ratio was about 50-50. Even in the car, when I get the sense that a topic I’m current with is going to beaten up, I turn the radio off.
I sense I am not alone in this. Perhaps more than one tipping point has been reached.
Tom points to a story in today’s WaPo pointing out ratings for WMAL declined 30% from the last book.
But a quick survey around the nation shows that most talk stations are experiencing much more mild declines. And one quick qualifier… most program directors don’t just look at how a station fared from one book to the next. They also look at how stations fared as compared to the same time last year. WABC in New York, for instance, went from a 4.5 in the Fall ‘04 book to a 3.5 in the Winter ‘05 book. But their Spring ‘04 book was a 3.9 (can’t find the data on Winter ‘04, sorry). A 3.9 to a 3.5 is a much more mild decline.
If you want to just look at the Fall ‘04 to Winter ‘05 ratings, a quick sampling shows no real cause for alarm for talk radio folks.
WLS, Chicago 4.4 to a 4.2
KGO, San Fran 6.6 to a 6.5
KSFO, S.F. 3.3 to a 3.1
WPHT, Philly 4.1 to a 3.7
WMAL, D.C. 4.3 to a 3.7
WRKO, Boston 3.9 to a 4.1
WJR, Detroit 5.3 to a 6.3(!)
Most stations saw a slight decline, although a few stations were able to buck the trend and increase their ratings post election (nice job, program directors!). Having lived and died by the ratings before, I don’t see anything that gives me cause for alarm. If WMAL continues to slide for another two or three books, expect to see some changes. But I don’t think that will happen, honestly.
Blogs are great, don’t get me wrong. But sometimes I think certain quarters of the blogosphere thinks 5 years from now they will have replaced newspapers, talk radio, and the network news. It’s not going to happen. TV didn’t kill radio, cable didn’t kill network television, and the blogs aren’t going to kill off any other form of media. It will be another source, but not a sole source of information.
More thoughts at Michelle Malkin and Outside the Beltway.
Cam: I wasn’t engaging in wishful thinking, nor do I believe that blogs are doing or will do the word your filter won’t let me type to talk radio.
I was opining that the drops, which I first heard Michael S mention, may represent some movement to the blogosphere, and that the movement is accelerating.
And don’t put me in the group that thinks blogs are going to replace newspapers and networks news. That isn’t wishful thinking; it’s silly.
As you noted in an e-mail to me, radio may have to adapt, and one way is to have bloggers on as guests (which Hewitt does, and it seems like you do). Even CNN and the like are carving out blogger time.
And of course radio people who aren’t yet blogging better get on it.
Duly noted and corrected, Tom.
Thx-much appreciated.
don’t forget that video did in fact kill the radio star …
I’m not too concerned about losing talk radio. There are many things you can do while you listen to the radio. There are not too many things you can do while blogging or watching the boob tube. Since both those activities occupy your vision, and one occupies your hands as well, you are limited to knitting, eating, or pocket pool while you watch TV.
That is why radio never went away when TV burst on the scene.
Woody
I agree with Woody, I listen to the radio when I’m driving and I get much more than just news listening to Rush or Laura. Talk radio is here to stay.
……..pocket pool?
Woody!
Kevin,
I had to come up with something funny that might go along with or at least relate to “boob tube”. You know……..something along the lines of mindless innocuous behavior………
Woody
Like voting democrat?
Excellent analogy!
Woody
Dang, Kevin. I wish I had said that.
Don’t worry, though. I doubt that the liberal will get it.
nice banter…good jollies here.
Yeah Ben. This is the kind of fun we have when people like you aren’t attacking us and calling us f****ing morons, hypocrites, etc.
Kevin, I wouldn’t have a problem with you if you didn’t lie, call people unpatriotic, and in general sound and act like a 2 year old. If you would like to have a nice polite discussion/debate with me, leave your personal attacks and idiotic references and lies out of it. Otherwise, I will continue to reciprocate.
I thought video killed the radio star…
Ben,
You can reciprocate intelligent discussion?
Hell, I’d pay money to see that. We don’t have to look far to see who does the name-calling here Ben, and personally, I think it’s an outrage that you claim to be former military. Do you have any proof Ben, or is that another lie like your military hero John Kerry?
Sorry if I don’t meet your standards, Ben. Maybe you should list the criteria we should all abide by so you will be happier. Gee, how did we all get along so well before American War Hero Ben F. Kerry came along!?